EDM Market Still Growing But More Slowly

Electronic Dance Music has been one of the biggest trends in music in recent years, but it looks to be slowing down.

According to the latest IMS Business Report 2015, EDM grew about 12% last year, which on the surface is great, but down considerably from the the 37% growth of the previous year.

The total market for EDM is now estimated at a very substantial $6.9 billion. North America represents about 29% of that market at around $2 billion.

Still, many data points indicate the genre is beginning to flatten out. First of all, U.S. track sales of EDM stood at 4.6%, the same as in 2013. The same with music festivals, although they're still huge with over 1.4 million attending.

One area that's still is growing is DJ equipment, especially in the United States. The U.S. accounts for 40% of the DJ equipment market, which grew 16% last year. As a comparison, stringed instruments and amplifier sales fell 2 and 3% last year.

Of course, the major DJs are still hot and making more money than ever, with the top 10 earning about $305 million last year. Calvin Harris tops the list at $66 million, or about $1 in every hundred brought into the industry.

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Why The SFX IPO Is Bad For EDM

SFX Entertainment’s recent IPO (Initial Public Offering) seems to have met both some backlash and bad timing, as it’s stock continues to struggle to come back to its original IPO price of $13 per share. Part of this is due to the stock market having a case of the yips over our boys in Washington being unable to come together to fund the government, so there’s your bad timing. The other part is due to the IPO stock offering being on the high side to begin with, much like the Facebook IPO last year.

But the fact that we’re even talking about the stock price rather than the company’s impact on music is the problem here, and it’s a symptom of a larger malady that pertains uniquely to the entertainment business. Once a company goes public, it becomes beholden to the stockholder and not the customer, and that’s bad for a company based around a totally creative product. In this case its music, more specifically electronic dance music (EDM), where SFX has made its big play.

Just a refresher on SFX - it’s the brainchild of chief executive and chairman Robert Sillerman, who saw how EDM was becoming the next big trend in music and wanted to cash in on its popularity. The company went on a buying spree, rolling up several event producers as well as online music store Beatport, and was planning on using the IPO money for additional acquisitions of other major EDM events.

It’s great when someone has so much confidence in a part of the music industry that he invests heavily in it, and then convinces Wall Street to invest as well, but that also brings about a self-fulfilling prophecy, meaning that when big money comes into something artistic, the art inevitably gets squeezed out in favor of something safer and more likely to result in a profit. Read more on Forbes.

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The Demise Of The Electric Guitar In Music

There are times when a trend happens so fast that it’s just like being hit in the face with an ice cold towel, and then there are times when it’s so slow moving that you can feel something happening, but it takes a while before you realize that you’re totally immersed in something new. A little of both happened to me over the last week as it finally sunk in that mainstream pop music is now totally represented by the latest music trend. And guess what? The electric guitar, staple of modern music for more than 50 years, has no part in it.

In case you’re wondering, it’s electronic dance music (or EDM as we’ve grown to call it) that has totally blended with pop music to become the current background music of our lives. It’s now in every nook and cranny where the hippest music is played.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m in the music business up to my ears every day and I’m totally aware that EDM has become both a phenomenon and a giant money maker over the last three or four years in terms of live events. I’m also more than aware that over the last two years elements of EDM have permeated the Top 40 charts on the vast majority of hits. You have to be completely musically unconscious to not to have seen and heard that.

And I read the stats and watch the revenue numbers involving EDM, where you could see the big money of the major promoters and record labels making their moves to claim their territory over the last year. It’s usually a sign that a trend has peaked as the big brands move in to stake their claim and squeeze every last drop of financial juice out of the trend that they can, as seems to be happening at the moment. You read and absorb all this data, but sometimes it just doesn’t sink in. Needless to say I was unprepared for my recent mini-revelation. Read More On Forbes.

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EDM By The Numbers

I've been meaning to post this for quite a while now, and although it's a little late, I think the numbers still hold up. These are some of the results from the International Music Summit 2012 Consumer Report about the EDM audience. This was done in conjunction with EMI Music in an effort to understand the EDM consumer better. Some of the more interesting conclusions outlined by the report are:

"● In the US, dance / electronic music has only half the passion that Rock music does, even for young people. It has a similar level of passion to Urban music. It is rivaled / beaten by Country music, even for young people. 

● The US has little passion for dance (16th of 17), but it has the most people who are passionate (1st of 17). A small increase in passion would make a big difference in the number of people who are passionate. Is that what we’ve seen in recent years: just a small change in passion that meant a big new audience?

● In the UK, passion for Dance / Electronic music rivals that for Rock music up to age 25. It’s consistently more loved than Urban music. It has no rivals beyond Rock, Pop and Urban.

● In the US, the most passionate age group (16-24) are only half as passionate (57%) about dance / electronic music as they are about the biggest genre. In the UK they’re almost as passionate about dance as they are about the genre they’re most passionate about (87%).

● There is no evidence that dance is ‘older’ or ‘younger’ in the UK or the US. The pattern by age is similar in the UK and the US – it’s just proportionally bigger in the UK. 

● In the UK dance is pretty mainstream (less engaged consumers are about 75% as passionate about dance as the engaged consumers are) whereas in the US it’s not very mainstream at all (less-engaged consumers are only about 56% as passionate about dance as engaged consumers are).

● Passion for the different genres of dance music are similar in the US and the UK. Except for Drum n Bass, which is more popular in the UK. And except for Techno because the word is often used in the US to describe dance / electronic music overall.

● Passion grows from age 13 to age 24, and peaks between ages 16 and 24. There is a steady decline in passion from age 25.

● There is a language problem. The most popular dance genre amongst people passionate about dance /electronic music is … ‘dance’ – they don’t know how better to describe what they like.

● People passionate about dance / electronic music describe it as: Cool, Upbeat, Energetic and Edgy.

● People not passionate about it describe it as: Boring, Annoying, Intrusive, Superficial and Noisy. 

● The same artist is often described very differently in different countries. Always as ‘Energetic’, but sometimes as Edgy and Upbeat (France), sometimes Cool (Germany, UK), sometimes Catchy (UK)."

As you can see, a big problem for the genre has been identified in that it has a short lifespan with it's audience. Unlike other genres of music that stay with you beyond your formative years, that doesn't seem to be the case with EDM, which seems to max out at age 25 in terms of interest. Of course, another big problem is the lack of catalog, as you probably won't find yourself humming these songs to yourself a few years down the road. That said, you have to admire the fact that the industry is trying to understand more about its audience in order to provide a better experience for them, which is something that should be happening in other genres as well. 

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The Reality Of EDM's Global Popularity

Depending upon who you listen to in the music industry, EDM (Electronic Dance Music for the uninitiated) is either the next big thing, the biggest trend in the music world right now, or a passing fad (although it's been 30 years now and it hasn't passed yet). Recently EMI did a pretty comprehensive survey of over 750,000 consumers and presented an interesting paper at the Ibiza Music Summit). These were some of their conclusions (taken from their slide show).

● There are 7 high level genres of EDM, 45 detailed ‘sub-genres’. 

● The biggest countries for EDM are Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, UK, and the US.

● The US is a special case because Dance/electronic music has only half the passion that Rock music has, even for young people. It has a similar level of passion to Urban music, and it's rivaled or beaten by Country music, even for young people.

● The US has little passion for dance (16th out of 17 countries), but it has the most people who are passionate (1st of 17).

● In the UK, passion for Dance/Electronic music rivals that for Rock music up to age 25. It’s consistently more loved than Urban music. It has no rivals beyond Rock, Pop and Urban.

● In the US, the most passionate age group (16-24) are only half as passionate (57%) about dance/electronic music as they are about the biggest genre. In the UK they’re almost as passionate about dance as they are about the genre they’re most passionate about (87%).

● There is no evidence that dance is ‘older’ or ‘younger’ in the UK or the US. The pattern by age is similar in the UK and the US – it’s just proportionally bigger in the UK.

● In the UK dance is pretty mainstream (less engaged consumers are about 75% as passionate about dance as the engaged consumers are) whereas in the US it’s not very mainstream at all (less-engaged consumers are only about 56% as passionate about dance as engaged consumers are).

● Passion for the different genres of dance music are similar in the US and the UK, except for Drum n Bass, which is more popular in the UK. And except for Techno because the word is often used in the US to describe dance/electronic music overall.

● There is a language problem. The most popular dance genre amongst people passionate about dance /electronic music is … ‘dance’ – they don’t know how better to describe what they like.

● People passionate about dance/electronic music describe it as: Cool, Upbeat, Energetic and Edgy.

● People not passionate about it describe it as: Boring, Annoying, Intrusive, Superficial and Noisy.

● The same artist is often described very differently in different countries. Always as ‘Energetic’, but sometimes as Edgy and Upbeat (France), sometimes Cool (Germany, UK), sometimes Catchy (UK).

I found this to be a great study in that instead of relying on numbers exclusively, it got into the essence of EDM's standing in the music world. Plus, this was very insightful for a major record label to do as well. It would be great if we could see more of this in the future.

The upshot is that the genre is certainly the current trend in that it's getting a lot of press and label attention, but it's still not as large or as passionate as that same press leads us to believe. There's much more to the study, which can be read here.

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Has EDM Peaked?

Every trend in music has the same trajectory, be it big band, rock n' roll, folk, British invasion, grunge, hip-hop, and now it appears, EDM (electronic dance music). The trend usually follows a path that goes like this:

1. The movement starts out small locally and grows by word of mouth via a small tribe of ardent supporters.
2. As the trend spreads, it picks up more and more followers from city to city and country to country, yet still stays under the radar of the masses as it continues to bubble with excitement.
3. The trend hits critical mass and breaks out with a huge world-wide hit or a breakout artist.
4. At that point every record label scrambles to get in on the act, signing artists of a lesser caliber in the same genre. Professional songwriters begin to adapt their styles to employ the latest trend and are sent to co-write with trend wanna-be's by the record labels and artist management. The music world looks for hits, not art, so it can cash in.
5. The once exciting latest-thing becomes a watered down homogenized version of it's former self, but lives on in the media as the hottest thing for a few years, as the early torch-carriers become slowly demoralized and leave the scene.
6. The trend never really dies, but it diminishes in importance and visibility as it's replaced with something newer and fresher.

Anything sound familiar here? Aren't we up to #5 with EDM?

EDM has been the biggest scene/trend that no one knew about (except those millions of insiders) for the longest time. When a DJ can get 50 to 100,000 people to pack a stadium and hardly cause a ripple in the news, that's still pretty underground. But it doesn't take long until the big money catches on and things change, and that's what's happening in EDM today.

Take a listen to the top songs in just about any pop chart and you'll find products of the EDM trend. David Guetta, Nicki Manaj, Black Eyed Peas, Pitbull, the list goes on but the music unfortunately doesn't get any better as we get contrived songs created for the masses.

As I always say, art is something you do for yourself, a craft is what you do for everyone else. We are now in the craft stage of EDM.

Today we see an article a day on EDM in mainstream media like the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, major promoters like Michael Cohl and Bob Sillerman getting involved because they see big bucks they think they can make, major labels on the prowl for new EDM talent at the recent EDMbiz conference, and the rest of the music world trying to catch up to a trend that's already passed them by. See what I mean?

I hate to say it, but it's all downhill from here. EDM will continue to grow for a few more years, but its most vibrant, creative time is probably now behind it.

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Will The Major Labels Jump On EDM?

Electronic Dance Music (or EDM) has grown to maybe the biggest underground musical movement ever with virtually zero publicity. When a DJ can play before 50,000 people (and do so regularly), that's definitely a music trend in the making. It's even more interesting when the rest of the world doesn't take notice.


By all indications that's changing though, as EDM has gradually come out from the underground with Grammy show appearances and top 10 hits by David Guetta and Deadmau5. The rest of the world is now aware of what a force in music EDM has become, which means the end of the innocence is soon at hand.

We hear through the LA music grapevine that the major labels are getting ready for an EDM feeding frenzy, beginning at the first annual EDM Biz Conference in Las Vegas on June 5 through 7. Yes, you can be sure that what was once a pure scene will soon be corrupted with Guetta, Paul Van Dyk, Paul Oakenfold wanna-be's and soundalikes signing first, then an influx of pretty boy DJs who look better on camera than the groundbreakers. In fact, don't be surprised if we even see a "producer for the producer" scenario arise as the new superstar celeb DJs are a lot better looking than they are at creating.

Why am I so cynical? Because we've been down this road before over and over, all the way back to the big band crooners, to the beginning of rock n roll, to the British Invasion, to grunge, to hip hop. Every time a trend arises, the majors jump on trying to cash in, then proceed to burn it out. There's no reason to believe that history won't repeat itself again. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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