What Really Makes Up The "Music Industry?"

Chris Castiglione wrote a thought provoking article over at Music Think Tank the other day regarding what really makes up "the music industry."

Chris cites a number of articles regarding the demise of the music industry as we know it, but postulates that the death of the industry depends on how you look at it. Until Music 3.0, the music industry revolved around the major and large indie record labels and their subsidiaries, with their trade organization (the RIAA) leading the way. The RIAA has long been the propaganda arm for the majors and those in the know would take their missives with a grain of salt. The further we get into M30, the more totally out-of-touch the RIAA (and hence, the majors) becomes with their pronouncements. That being said, it's foolish to believe that this is the totality of the music business.

In fact, there's more music being consumed than ever before, according to several recent studies, although it's being consumed in different ways and forms, which doesn't fit into the old Music 2.5 model at all. We all know it - everything has changed. The difference is that some of us change with the times and others (the major labels) don't.

So what is the music industry today? Certainly the major labels are a big part of it and still sell an enormous amount of product both digital and physical goods. That number is declining like  crazy (at least 10% a year) so the "industry" as we knew it isn't central to what the industry is today. Publishing is doing as well as ever and even growing a little (a fact hardly ever publicized) so that's not a factor either way. But parts of the industry that were just a rounding error a few years ago now have a significant impact on its overall strength.

The live concert business is growing slightly in revenue, but having a tough time selling tickets lately. Live Nation (soon to merge with Ticketmaster) and AEG have gone into the management and promotion business, cutting deals directly with the artists and bypassing agents and smaller promoters. That's become a bigger part of the industry than days past.

Music licensing is a bigger business than ever even though the individual fees have decreased. There are a lot more revenue streams thanks to the ever increasing number of cable networks.

Brick and mortar record stores and traditional broadcast radio have declined in importance in the "industry", but Internet radio and online music stores like iTunes, Amazon, Rhapsody and Spotify continue to grow. They're now a big part of the industry.

But  perhaps the largest part of the industry is the one that's the most difficult to count, and that's the thousands and thousands (maybe even millions) of independent artists that now have the ability to deliver their music directly to their fans, who consume it in silence, oblivious to Neilsen Soundscan ratings. That's the core of Music 3.0. Even though we haven't had a huge breakout from this group yet, you can be sure that's it's coming.

So the music industry has gone from being built around the major labels to a much more diverse group of related businesses. No one sector dominates like before even though they may be formidable. But the leveling of importance between the industry sectors continues as we speak. Music 3.0 is about artistic democracy, and democracy always comes slowly.

Apple's new iTunes Play

One of my predictions about the music industry for 2010 was that subscription music would almost hit critical mass, with Apple's iTunes finally pushing it over the edge when they introduce their own subscription service in 2011. This prediction was based on the premise that Apple's purchase of Lala provided the needed infrastructure to create a subscription service that made it easier than building one from the ground up.

While this seems a reasonable supposition, industry pundits are predicting that Apple has something else in mind for the Lala backbone, and they'll spring it on us at the upcoming "big event" scheduled for January 27th.

The thought is now that Apple will do a sort of hybrid service, moving all of a consumer's purchases to the "cloud" (computer storage accessed via the Internet) instead of having a song downloaded on to your personal computing device (be it a computer or a phone or an iPod). In effect, you get the streaming function of a subscription service but it will still be only of all the songs you purchased. So in effect, you won't be downloading songs any more, you'll be uploading them! You can still have them on your desktop if you want, but you probably won't.

Indeed, the main benefit to the consumer is that you save all that room on your drive, especially if you have a large collection, and you no longer have to worry about high-quality versions of the songs eating up your hard drive. But the real benefit belongs to Apple. They still get to charge you 99 cents (or more) to purchase a song, instead of collecting a flat fee per month for access to unlimited songs. And they don't have to renegotiate any of the licenses with the record labels. The consumer gets a taste of what subscription music would be like, but at no cost benefit.

This doesn't sound like much of a deal at all, especially when the Spotify music subscription service is about to launch in the States soon. I still believe that this move is still a precursor to Apple eventually going subscription, but it's just a ploy to keep the status quo a little longer than had they gone directly to subscription.

Because once the consumer gets a taste of music subscription, there will be no turning back.

Top 10 Music Moneymakers Of The Decade

One of the more eye-opening stats about the recent and current music business is who made the most money during the 00's. Here's a list that combines concert ticket and CD sales. Yes, it will surprise you.

1. Celine Dion - $748 mill

2. Kenny Chesney - $742 mill

3, Dave Mathews Band - $738 mill

4. The Beatles - $627 mill (including Paul McCartney's and Ringo's ticket sales)

5. U2 - $610 mill

6. Toby Keith - $592 mill

7. Bruce Springsteen - $588 mill

8. The Rolling Stones - $570 mill

9. Tim McGraw - $551 mill

10. Britney Spears - $495 mill

What this list tells us is that our assumptions regarding the type of music that is hot may be all wrong. Even though Rap and Hip Hop seemed to dominate the charts during the decade, no artists from that genre cracked the top 10. Only Eminem came in at #14 with $419 mill and he was the only hip hop artist in the top 20.

Who would've guessed that Celine Dion would've been number 1? Or that Kenny Chesney would be number 2? Or Dave Mathews and The Beatles numbers 3 and 4?

The list illustrates just how little radio reflects the buying tastes of the general public, but it also shows that mainstream music artists with major label connections still partake of the biggest piece of the financial pie. That being said, the list is also a reflection more on the era of Music 2.5 than Music 3.0. Let's see what the next 10 years bring.

Social Media Tactics That Work

Excellent article today at eMarketer entitled "What's Working For Social Media Marketers?" It featured a couple of charts worth a look.

The chart on the left describes the marketing tactics that gather the best response on Facebook both B2B (business to business) and B2C (business to consumer). There's nothing especially new here as it's all just best practices, but the order of success is a little different than expected. Survey's rate a lot higher in response that I would've expected.

This chart provides the most responsive tactics for Twitter. Once again you're seeing best practices in action, but it's interesting that the tactics work better between business and consumers in almost every action.

If you're not using these tactics yet for interacting with your fans, now is the time. The practices have proven to be successful.

The NAMM Show And Social Media

I was dumbfounded as I walked around the Winter NAMM 2010 show at the utter lack of awareness that manufacturers and dealers alike have for social media. Of the more than 1500 exhibitors, I only saw a single MySpace address, zero Facebook fan site addresses, Twitter addresses, or anything else remotely tied to social media. In fact, it seems that many companies were even lax with website info, if you can imagine that.

For all the attention that social networking has gotten in the last year, it's penetration isn't nearly as high as we're lead to believe, at least in this space. I do have an explanation, however.

1) Let's face it, everyone in a small company is overworked. Each person wears a number of different hats and it's pretty much impossible to do anything particularly well with so little time to spend on each task. Social networking is time consuming, and there's just not enough hours in the day to get it done, even if you're aware of the potential benefits.

2) Most PR firms are blissfully unaware of social media. The ones I spoke with told me about attending seminars to learn about it, so they're still neophytes themselves, but even they didn't have the time to get their arms around the discipline for their clients.

If the musical instrument industry, which is relatively hip, has these problems, can you imagine what other industries are like? The bottom line is that there's a real opportunity for a social PR company to take up the considerable slack that's being left by existing PR.

By the way, Jet City Amplifiers, a brand new amp company, is one of the few exceptions, with a pretty good Facebook and Twitter presence that has stoked their sales considerably right out of the box.

On another note, I did see one band that was thinking out of the box at NAMM. The Siloam band had one of the worst spots on the exhibit floor (obviously it was cheap) but they were touting their wares with a video and live performances. I don't know if NAMM is the right venue, but I do like the fact that they were trying something out of the norm.

5 Reasons For A Revolutionary Year In The Music Biz

There was an interesting article at Billboard.biz yesterday entitled, "5 Reasons Why 2010 Will Be Revolutionary For The Music Biz." The article made a few good points, but I'm not so sure if I agree with every premise. Here are the 5 reasons outlined in the article, along with my thoughts on each.

1) The Ticket Master/Live Nation merger. The article states that the merger will enable the new company to sell entertainment packages in such novel ways that it will impact ticket sales for the better. I think that what's really going to change the concert business is the backlash from consumers on a variety of issues, including sky high prices, premium seats only available through ticket brokers, and too many unnecessary ancillary fees. The revolution is indeed coming, but it's the consumer who will be doing the impacting, not TM/LN.

2) The Performance Rights Act changes radio. The Performance Rights Act enables artists other than songwriters to get paid for airplay. The way it is now, only the writers of "You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling" get paid for every one of it's more than 7 million plays while the Righteous Brothers never made a penny. The Performance Rights Act makes sure they're finally given a tiny sliver of compensation for singing the song. The NAB has been painting the act with gloom and doom, stating that radio stations will be going bankrupt everywhere, or turning to talk radio. it might actually be a good thing if they go bankrupt and let someone else take over, but that will never happen. Instead of "big radio" making a big profit every year, they'll make a slightly less big profit and move on.

3) Internet Service Providers become partners. The article states that this is the year when ISPs start enforcing pirating laws and collecting fees for the record labels. Yeah, dream on. The ISP's will merely respond, "Hey, we're just the pipe. You guys are the water flowing through it. Regulation is up to you the way it's always been!" Having the ISPs do the labels dirty work and collecting money for them is just a label fantasy.

4) Spotify will raise the bar for mobil music. If you don't already know, Spotify is a subscription music service that's been pretty successful in parts of Europe, but has yet to debut here in the US because of licensing issues with a few of the major labels. The service is supposed to get going here in 2010, but reports are that it's severely hampered by cash flow and may never have the bucks to be able to put if over the top. My bet is that Apple begins it's iTunes subscription service in 2011, at which time music subscription will take off.

5) Almost any way you slice it, EMI will reshape the industry. EMI used to be a major label but it's recently become a non-entity in the major label world. Cash-strapped, short on management, no respect, and few hits, the only thing it has going for it is a huge catalog. The article thinks that EMI will get turned around and become a major again (of course it would say that, Billboard would love to get some EMI ad dollars). The bet here is that those days are over and if it's lucky, EMI will be relegated to being a catalog manager if it stays alive at all.

Read the entire article at Billboard.biz, then tell me who you agree with.

Guidelines For Direct Marketing To Your Audience

It's easy to think that since you have this great mailing list or gigantic list of friends that you have the perfect way to sell your products to them. That's true, but in Music 3.0, direct marketing to your audience must be approached with caution. Your fans want to hear from you, but they want to be informed, not hyped.

Chances are your fans want everything you have to offer, but they don’t want the feeling that they're being "sold". Make an announcement about a new release or a piece of swag, but don’t oversell it. Fans don’t need to know that you think your new music is the greatest thing you ever did and it’s better than the Foo Fighters last release. They’ll decide for themselves and then sell it for you in their own conversations if they like it.

The way to market to your tribe is by simply presenting your product to them. Just make them aware that it’s available, and they’ll do the rest. You can take it a bit further by offering them information about the product - the more exclusive, the better.

Instead of a sales pitch:

• Give them a behind the scenes story about the making of the product.

• Tell them where the idea for it came.

• Tell them about all the people involved, especially other tribe members.

• Provide interviews with others involved in the project.

• Give them all the trivia involved in the project, no matter how small. True fans will eat it up. If it’s a new song, tell them where it was recorded, who the engineer and producer were, how many tracks were needed, how long the mix took, how many mixes you did, how the final mix compared to the rough mix, and all of the hundred other fine details that go into producing a song. If you just produced a new T-shirt, describe where the design came from, why you chose the manufacturer, what the shirt is made of, why you chose the color, etc. Get the idea?

Giving them insight that no ones else has makes them feel special, will keep them loyal, and will show casual fans and lurkers the benefits of their participation with you.

Consumer Electronics And Social Media

Just came back from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas (for a full report, see my Big Picture blog) and saw a number of significant trends that were surprising for social media and how it relates to musicians.

First of all, more and more television models are now social media aware, with direct connections online to a variety of video hosting sites. This integration bodes well for social media in general as it's not a large jump to be connected to Facebook, MySpace, Twitter or any other networking site. Imagine being able to discuss a television show or video on a split screen of a 55 inch monitor with your online friends while you're watching it. That's the future and it's almost here.

Imagine speaking with friends via Skype over your television. Imagine watching the same show from different locations while seeing each other as if you're in the same room. That's here now, as a number of manufacturers showed models with built-in Skype capabilities.

And while 3D doesn't have anything to do with social media directly, it was the theme of the show. So what, you say? The do-it-yourself nature of Music 3.0 means that anything is possible from creation to distribution and marketing, but 3D was a technology beyond the do-it-yourselfer - until  now. Panasonic showed a prototype of a 3D camcorder that will be within reach of the masses at $21,000. Still expensive, I know, but within reach price-wise and bound to decrease in cost as the technology evolves. Sooner than you think, you may be able to have your own music video version of Avatar ready for distribution via YouTube. And social media will move from the computer to the living room.

My So-Called Digital Life

My personal laptop blew it's logic board on Friday, disrupting my digital life pretty well. While I didn't lose too much data, there are some emails that look like they've gone away.

If you've sent me an email in the last 3 days and have not heard back from me yet, please send it again.

2009 Music Sales At An All-Time High

Yes, you read the title correctly. 2009 US music sales hit an all time high according to Nielsen SoundScan, with total sales of over 1.5 billion, up 2.1% over 2008.

Despite reports of the album's demise, the format sold 373.9 million (which is still a very substantial figure), but individual digital track sales are even better with more than 1.1 billion in 2009, up 8.3% from 2008 .

Nielsen also reports that 89 digital songs exceeded the 1 million sales mark in 2009, compared with 71 songs in 2008. Not only that, 2009 marked the first time a song broke the 4 million sales mark in a single year, which happened by not one, but four singles -- "Boom Boom Pow" and "I Got a Feeling" from the Black Eyed Peas, Lady Gaga's "Poker Face" and Flo Rida's "Right Round."

Sounds pretty good doesn't it? But the devil is in the details. Of course the number of sales were up, but that doesn't mean revenue was as well, and industry growth is definitely slowing. Album sales dropped another 12.7% from the previous year, which is not a figure that the industry wants to hear, but digital music is still on the rise as it accounted for 40% of all music purchases in 2009, up from 32% in 2008. That being said, digital album sales made up 20% of total album sales in 2009.

Who was the biggest seller of 2009? Michael Jackson, who racked up a total of 8.2 million album sales, which was significantly more than Taylor Swift's 4.6 million. After Jackson and Swift, The Beatles moved more than 3.28 million total units, followed by newcomer Susan Boyle (3.1 million), Lady Gaga (2.8 million), Andrea Bocelli (2.6 million), Michael Buble (2.28 million), Eminem (2.1 million), Carrie Underwood (1.8 million) and the Black Eyed Peas (1.88 million).

Lady Gaga was the year's top-selling digital artist, selling more than 15 million tracks and her album "The Fame" being the top-selling digital album of the year with 461,000 downloads.

What can we take from these figures? Music is still extremely popular and although it's a business in decline, it's still enormous. Of course it's changing, but it's not going away any time soon.

5 Superb Social Media Tools For Musicians

Zach Pentel recently created an interesting post over at Mashable called "5 Superb Social Media Tools For Musicians."

You can read the post for more details, but here's what he suggested:

1) Improve your Facebook Page with ReverbNation’s MyBand. MyBand allows your page to be more unique than the standard Facebook fan page.

2) Share Songs on Twitter with Twiturm. Twiturm lets artists and band share their songs right on Twitter without sending someone off to another site like MySpace.

3) Reward Increased Engagement with FanBridge. FanBridge does one of the things that I've been advocating in my Music 3.0 book, allows you to engage your fans from a single place. Makes your online life easy.

4) Build and Share a Digital Album Package with BandCamp. BandCamp is a publishing platform that goes beyond streaming and allows you to create a self-contained package.

5) Measure It All with Band Metrics. You don't know how well your doing until you can measure and Band Metrics is a measurement tool designed especially for artists and bands.

Check out Zach's post and check out Mashable, which is a great aggregator of all things social.

Hugh MacLeod's "Ignore Everybody"

A few weeks ago I received an email from industry provocateur Derek Sivers with an unusual offer. He would send me a book from either Seth Godin or Hugh MacLeod (Derek loves books on marketing), and if I received any benefit I would write something about it. I'm a big fan of Seth Godin and if you've read my Music 3.0 book, you know that Seth's ideas play a big part of it. But I've never read Hugh MacLeod, until the book from Derek arrived in the mail the other day.

Hugh's book "Ignore Everybody - And 39 Other Keys To Creativity" is a very quick and enjoyable read, and as Derek predicted, really spoke to me.

I think the over-riding theme of the book is, "If you have an idea that you really believe in, don't ask anyone for advice or their thoughts, just go for it." It's too easy to get discouraged by even your friends and family, because they have a vested interest in keeping their relationship with you just as it is. You've got to understand that if you put your time in, you have a chance at success, but those relationships inevitably will change.

I've seen it happen myself several times over the years. When I first got a gig with a successful touring band, I had a friend tell me how much I'd changed. I didn't think my attitude towards him or anyone else was any different, but it was true, my life had changed but not in the way he thought. I was really tired from all the traveling, and under a lot of pressure from recording and not feeling very good about my parts. How can anyone else who hadn't been through the same thing appreciate that? I was a bit aloof because I was feeling depressed about how things were going, but that was interpreted as something else completely.

Then when I started to get a little success working with major and minor music celebrities, I had friends that no longer called me because they thought I was too busy and they didn't want to disturb me. Busy yes, but disturb me - of course not! This still goes on to this day.

This is not an uncommon occurrence unfortunately, and people with far more success than I've had have been going through these things for ages. I think that what surprises you when it happens is the fact that you're not ready for it. Hugh's book points out that you should expect a relationship to change the moment you have an idea that you intend to act on, because your friends like the status quo better than what might happen if you succeed.

Hugh's next point that got to me was "Don't quit your day job" If you're a musician, or anyone in the arts for that matter, you've heard this one forever, but Hugh has slightly different take on it.

Yes, keeping a "day job" doing something other than the thing you love may not be what you want, but that happens even when you have some success and the thing you love to do really does become your day job. Every artist is forced to choose between what's in their heart, and what they have to do to earn a living. Actors take a Hollywood blockbuster with a feeble story so they can still act in independent art films. Painters take commissions from wealthy patrons so that they can spend time on that inspiration that will never go anywhere. Musician's take a high paying gig they hate so they can spend a few weeks working on their own music. This illustrates a point that I'm fond of saying, "Art is something you do for yourself. A craft is something you do for someone else." Hugh just said it another way.

There are at least 5 additional points made in "Ignore Everybody" that I really liked, but I'll leave them for another post. If you're a creative person in just about any artistic or technological discipline, Hugh MacLeod's "Ignore Everybody" is a book that you should check out.